As crypto markets look beyond short-term volatility, Dragonfly Capital is turning its focus to 2026. In a wide-ranging outlook, the firm’s leadership highlights Bitcoin’s evolving market structure, rising competition from Big Tech wallets, and a more selective future for decentralized finance. The message is clear: the next phase of crypto growth will reward fundamentals over hype.
Bitcoin’s Price Outlook and a Changing Market Structure
Bitcoin remains at the center of Dragonfly’s 2026 thesis, though not for the reasons seen in previous cycles. Qureshi believes the asset can trade above $150,000 within the next two years, but he does not expect it to dominate the market in the same way it once did.
It’s that time again—as 2025 comes to a close, it’s time to drop 2026 predictions.
I think 2026 is going to surprise, both to the upside and to the downside. Organized by category:
Macro / Chains
* $BTC is > $150K by year-end, but BTC dominance decreases in 2026.
* Despite the…— Haseeb ＞|＜ (@hosseeb) December 29, 2025
Bitcoin’s appeal as a neutral, scarce asset has strengthened amid macro uncertainty, particularly as regulatory clarity improves across major jurisdictions. Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market capitalization may decline. That shift would not signal weakness. Instead, the shift points to growth in other parts of the ecosystem. Investment is moving toward stablecoins, settlement rails, and blockchain-based financial infrastructure rather than new base-layer bets.
Learn more: Stablecoin – A Full Utilization Guide
Stablecoins play a central role in this evolution. According to Dragonfly’s analysis, supply could grow sharply into 2026 as banks, fintech firms, and cross-border payment providers adopt blockchain rails. Even modest growth rates would translate into hundreds of billions of dollars in on-chain liquidity.
Asked about privacy as a major theme, Qureshi demurred. “I think privacy is going to be a laggard,” he wrote. “Zcash will likely do well because people want to believe, and there will be some adoption of private transactions on Arc, Tempo, etc.” Still, he returned to his overarching frame: “I predict mostly people will keep doing things in 2026 the way they’ve already been doing them.”
At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.07 trillion.
Big Tech Wallets and the Next Phase of Corporate Adoption
One of Qureshi’s more closely followed views centers on Big Tech’s role in crypto’s next phase. He expects at least one large technology firm to launch or acquire a crypto wallet by 2026, with a focus on payments, custody, or digital identity rather than trading.
For platforms with global user bases, wallets offer flexibility without exposure. They can enable cross-border payments, identity verification, loyalty programs, or programmable transactions, all without issuing a token or running a public blockchain.
That distinction is critical. Earlier attempts by large technology firms to roll out their own digital currencies frequently stalled under regulatory pressure. Crypto wallets, however, face fewer hurdles. They sit more comfortably within existing financial rules and tend to draw far less scrutiny from regulators.
Learn more: An Introduction to Hardware Wallet by NFTPlazas
Enterprise blockchain adoption is also advancing, though largely outside public attention. Many corporations are experimenting with permissioned or hybrid systems that connect to public blockchains for settlement or verification. Advances in rollups and modular architectures have lowered integration costs.
Why Fintech-Backed Blockchains Hit a Ceiling
Despite rising corporate interest in blockchain, new Layer 1 networks launched by fintech firms face structural limits. The issue is not performance or engineering. It is positioning.
Blockchains branded or controlled by a single company struggle to present themselves as neutral infrastructure. Developers are often reluctant to build on networks where governance, incentives, or strategic direction remain under the control of a single corporate sponsor.
When neutrality is questioned, ecosystems can struggle to attract outside participation. Without strong composability or sustained third-party demand, fintech-backed blockchains risk becoming inward-looking platforms, limited to a narrow range of predefined use cases rather than open financial infrastructure. Growth can be steady, but it is usually capped.
A More Disciplined Crypto Market
Dragonfly’s 2026 outlook points to a market that looks increasingly familiar to traditional finance. Speculation still exists, but it no longer defines the entire cycle. Infrastructure, compliance, and capital efficiency now matter more.
| Theme | Expected Direction |
| Bitcoin Price | Above $150,000, driven by institutions |
| Bitcoin Dominance | Gradual decline as ecosystem expands |
| Stablecoin Supply | Strong growth from payments and banking |
| Big Tech Entry | Wallets and infrastructure, not new tokens |
| New Fintech L1s | Limited adoption versus established chains |
| Enterprise Blockchain | Hybrid and permissioned models expand |
Key Themes Shaping Crypto into 2026
Bitcoin remains central, though its role has evolved. It anchors value while other sectors absorb growth. Big Tech enters quietly, through wallets and tooling rather than bold currency launches. New blockchains face higher barriers, while established networks strengthen their position.
