Standard Chartered, the British multinational banking giant, has decisively maintained its highly ambitious year-end price forecast for Bitcoin at $200,000, according to a recent research note.
The bank’s head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, pointed to a powerful blend of sustained institutional capital flows and the potential US government shutdown as the key catalysts for the predicted surge.
ETF Inflows are the Main Engine
Kendrick’s analysis firmly roots the bullish projection in the overwhelming success of Bitcoin ETFs. He noted that net inflows into these products have already approached $50 billion. According to SoSoValue, the current U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF’s cumulative total net inflow is $61.25 billion.
U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF’s cumulative total net inflow reaches $61.25 billion today – Source: SoSoValue
Learn more: U.S. SEC Approves Spot Bitcoin ETFsÂ
The analyst stressed that continued institutional demand is essential to hit the $200,000 mark. He expects “at least another $20 billion by year-end, a number which would make my $200,000 year-end forecast possible.”
On a shorter time horizon, Kendrick suggests BTC is poised to breach its previous all-time high within days and could swiftly accelerate toward $135,000 in the immediate weeks ahead.
Learn more: 21 Best Crypto Signals Telegram Channels for Trading in 2025
Why a Government Halt is Good News
The most interesting part of the bank’s analysis is the idea that a US government shutdown is actually a positive thing for Bitcoin.
Kendrick argues that unlike past periods, Bitcoin is now acutely correlated with “U.S. government risks,” reflected in the Treasury term premiums.
This correlation positions Bitcoin to directly benefit from deepening political gridlock and fiscal instability in Washington. The perspective reinforces the narrative of BTC’s maturation from a niche digital asset into a sophisticated macro-financial hedge. This offers a store of value when confidence in traditional financial governance wavers.
